Zimbabwe, a nation powered by its rich mineral resources, is riding the wave of soaring global mineral prices. This surge is not just boosting foreign currency inflows but transforming miners' livelihoods. In this week’s Miners Weekend Reader, sponsored by African Procure House (APH), we spotlight compelling developments in local production and the dynamic global price shifts of October 2025, focusing on four powerhouse minerals: gold, platinum, nickel & PGMs, and lithium. Don’t miss out—discover how Zimbabwe is poised to capitalize on this golden opportunity!

• Gold Sub-Sector

Recent data from Fidelity Gold Refinery (FGR) clearly demonstrates a robust and thriving gold mining sector. In September 2025 alone, miners delivered approximately 4.5 tonnes of gold—representing a significant 6.9% increase over August's 4.2 tonnes. Notably, artisanal and small-scale miners (ASM) contributed a remarkable 3.5 tonnes of this total, overshadowing the 1 tonne from large-scale producers.

Cumulatively, from January to September 2025, gold deliveries have soared to 32.98 tonnes, an impressive 36.3% leap compared to the same period in 2024. The ASM sector is leading this growth, delivering an outstanding 74.3% of the total, with 24.5 tonnes, while large-scale producers contribute 8.48 tonnes. Using official FGR data, the chart below shows a 12-month trend in gold deliveries by miners.

The first nine (9) months of 2025 total official gold deliveries (production) account for 92% of the 2024 full-year deliveries. These compelling figures affirm that the nation is on a clear trajectory to surpass the government’s 40-tonne annual gold target for 2025.

The record domestic gold output is linked to burgeoning global gold prices. Granular analysis of average price shows that in September 2025, gold witnessed one of its most favorable months in over a decade, contributing to a 47% year-to-date (YTD) increase—its strongest annual performance since 1979.

Overall, the average gold price on the global market rose 17.1% in the third quarter (3Q25), outpacing the 5% growth in 2Q25. This upward trend continues a multi-year bullish cycle, during which the price of gold has approximately doubled (see figure below extracted from goldprice.org).

By October 2025, gold demonstrated extraordinary resilience, reaching unprecedented heights above US$4,300 per ounce. To illustrate its remarkable momentum, gold hit a new intraday high of US$4,000 on October 8, marking the 45th record high of the year—and it only took 36 days for prices to surge from US$3,500 to US$4,000. Despite a notable correction on October 21, when gold experienced its largest intraday decline in over a decade—dropping nearly US$300 from its previous day's peak—this temporary dip should be viewed as a natural, healthy market correction rather than a sign of weakness.

The underlying fundamentals remain robust: strong institutional demand from central banks, rising deficit spending by governments worldwide, and escalating geopolitical tensions all point to gold’s enduring appeal as a safe-haven asset. Investors who recognize these compelling factors should see this pullback as an opportune moment to reinforce their positions in gold, as its resilient momentum suggests a promising outlook amid ongoing global uncertainties.

Aligned with rising global prices, gold exports are also increasing (see chart above). The latest ZimStat goods trade data show that in September 2025, Zimbabwe earned roughly US$352 million from gold alone. Although this is a significant 23.8% decrease from US$463 million in the previous month, the total remains the fifth highest so far in 2025.

Additionally, the cumulative gold exports for 2025, valued at US$3.1 billion, are 93.8% higher than the US$1.6 billion earned during the same period in 2024. This solidifies the yellow metal as the primary export earner, making up an impressive 47.7% of total exports in 2025. With current market conditions favoring high global prices, we project gold exports to surpass the US$4 billion mark – a first since the discovery of gold.

• Platinum Sub-Sector

ZimStat data show that Zimbabwe exported unwrought platinum (raw, unprocessed platinum metal) worth US$0.8 million in September 2025, a 87.7% decline from US$6.2 million in the previous month. Cumulatively, unwrought platinum export revenues for the first nine months of 2025 totaled US$32.6 million, which is 57% below the US$75.9 million achieved in 2024.

A trend analysis indicates that Zimbabwe’s exports of unwrought platinum are decreasing (see the chart below, created using ZimStat data). This is likely driven by value-addition policies implemented by the government over the years, such as the beneficiation tax. However, these policies have faced many obstacles, including policy uncertainty, infrastructure limitations, and insufficient funding.

The recent World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) review indicates that the global platinum market was nearly balanced in the second quarter of 2025 (2Q25), with demand driven by jewelry and reduced warehouse outflows. Supply in 2Q25 decreased 4% YoY due to lower primary output, while industrial demand declined sharply, but jewelry demand helped offset some losses. Looking ahead, a third consecutive annual deficit is expected, driven by weak mining supply and low recycling, with demand set to rise further, especially in the industrial and automotive sectors.

From the domestic front, Zimbabwe experienced a buoyant 2Q25 performance. Its 2Q25 output rose 9% YoY to 137 koz, a quarterly all-time high. The smelter expansion at Zimplats drove this 2Q25 increase, which enabled a drawdown of semi-finished inventory accumulated during the commissioning process.

However, platinum supply from Zimbabwe in 2025 is expected to contract by 4% YoY to 491 koz, retreating from the record level achieved in 2024. The decline is primarily attributable to the non-reoccurrence of a drawdown in semi-finished stock that boosted last year’s volumes, as well as regional electricity shortages.

In terms of price dynamics, after spending nearly a decade range-trading between US$600 and US$1,250 per troy ounce, by the end of September 2025, platinum prices had increased almost 50%.

Platinum’s growth is not happening in isolation, but alongside gold, which experienced its best year since 1979, and silver, which is nearing a record high. What these precious metals have in common is a global concern about holding central bank-issued fiat currencies amid higher-than-target and often rising core inflation, falling central bank rates, and massive budget deficits in many of the world’s largest economies.

As of November 3, 2025, the spot platinum price hovered around US$1,606/Oz, with year-to-date gains of over 60%, outperforming both gold and silver. Its price reached a peak of about US$1,725/Oz in mid-October before easing slightly amid profit-taking and easing US-China trade tensions, which reduced safe-haven demand. We expect platinum prices to stay bullish in 4Q25, supported by ongoing market deficits driven by tight supply and steady, if not increasing, demand.

• Nickel (& PGMs) Sub-Sector

Latest ZimStat trade data show that Zimbabwe earned roughly US$1.5 million from exports of nickel ores and concentrates (raw materials used to produce refined nickel) in September 2025, down from US$14.3 million in August 2025. This figure includes platinum group metals (PGMs).

Cumulatively, exports were valued at US$84.6 million in the January-September 2025 period, representing a 77.4% decrease from US$374.8 million in the same period in 2024. We anticipate that this significant decline in nickel ore export value is likely due to the government’s policy shift, as outlined in Statutory Instrument 5 of 2023, which banned the export of raw or unprocessed base metals, including nickel. The chart below is a 12-month trend in nickel exports based on official ZimStat data.

Meanwhile, in September 2025, the country exported nickel matte (an intermediate product in nickel production), worth US$106.04 million, a 13.2% decline from US$122.2 million in August 2025. This figure includes the value of PGMs.

Cumulatively, nickel matte exports, valued at US$921.8 million, were recorded from January to September 2025, representing a 24% increase from US$743.3 million earned during the same period in 2024. The surge in nickel matte export value reflects the ongoing bullish cycle of platinum group minerals (PGMs). For instance, palladium increased by 19% in the third quarter (Q3) as global supply concerns fueled significant risk premiums in its pricing.

This Q3 gain was the largest quarter-on-quarter increase in several years. Geopolitical tensions over the Ukraine conflict, proposed US tariffs on Russian palladium, and South African mine production challenges from labor strikes and power issues intensified global PGM supply concerns.

However, nickel prices were volatile in the first half of 2025, reaching a year-to-date high of US$16,720 per metric tonne on March 12 before dropping to a year-to-date low of US$14,150 on April 8. By the start of the third quarter, prices had stabilized, reaching US$15,190 on July 1.

Amid price fluctuations, nickel rose to a quarterly high of US$15,575 on July 23, then fell to a quarterly low of US$14,950 on July 31. For the rest of the period, nickel prices mostly stayed within the US$15,000 to US$15,500 range, dipping outside that window only once, to US$14,950 on August 21.

We see the issues facing the nickel market not as stemming from weak demand, since consumption is rising at a solid rate. For us, the problem is rapid production growth, mainly driven by Indonesia, which has created a structurally oversupplied market, putting downward pressure on nickel prices.

Looking ahead, the price of the metal should find support from seasonal output declines driven by the rainy season in the Philippines, which will reduce the amount of nickel entering the market. However, this will only be temporary, as the season lasts from early October to the first quarter of 2026.

• Lithium Sub-Sector

It is reported that Zimbabwe currently has no limits on how much lithium miners can extract and export, thereby limiting its control over production volumes and long-term sustainability. In a push to increase value addition and beneficiation of base metals, the government has proposed a ban on the export of lithium spodumene concentrate from January 2027.

All lithium concentrates by that time should be beneficiated to lithium sulphate. To this end, two investors, Arcadia and Bikita Minerals, are advanced in the spodumene lithium value chain. For instance, Bikita has installed a cesium flotation plant. They are currently fine-tuning the plant's efficiency to achieve target quality levels before beginning to export cesium from the tailings treatment plant.

Although these are welcome developments, mining experts bemoan the extension of the raw lithium export ban, noting that many lithium miners have already reached peak production and are anticipated to have extracted the lion’s share of the high-grade lithium resource by the time the new rules kick in.

Meanwhile, State-owned Kuvimba Mining plans to begin construction of the Sandawana lithium mine in 3Q25, with production expected by 2027. The project aims to produce 600,000 tons of lithium concentrate annually.

Available data shows that the lithium sector produced 2.4 million tons of lithium concentrates in 2024, more than tripling the 2023 output of 745,455 tons. For 2025, the government initially set a target of 3.26 million tons, propelled by the launch of new mining projects and significant investments from Chinese companies.

However, the country seems to be falling short of its 2025 goal due to various factors, including regulatory and tax hurdles (such as the royalty structure and the 5% beneficiation levy), financial constraints (notably high capital costs and limited access to credit), and major power supply issues.

Additionally, lithium prices faced significant downward pressure in the first half of 2025. For example, in 2Q25, lithium prices continued to decline, with lithium carbonate prices dropping to levels not seen since January 2021.

Following the lows in lithium prices seen in 1H25, the market has continued to strengthen due to steady demand growth. Growth in energy storage has surpassed initial expectations, tightening the market balance, while recent supply disruptions have further supported prices.

Lithium spodumene prices increased 14% quarter-over-quarter to $813 per tonne but were still 6% lower compared to the same period last year. As of October 31, 2025, prices stood at around $944 per tonne, which is 16% above the 3Q25 average.

Since prices remain below long-term incentive levels for many projects, supply growth is slowing. As a result, market conditions are expected to improve further into 2026, driven by strong demand, ongoing supply discipline, and the rapid development of energy storage and automation-driven technologies. Based on current price trends, 4Q25 is on track to see the first year-over-year price increase for the lithium industry since 1Q23.

About African Procure House:

African Procure House (APH) is a buying house specializing in a broad range of electrical, instrumentation, and mechanical engineering solutions tailored primarily for the mining industry. It is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa, with a regional branch in Harare, Zimbabwe. For more information, visit www.africanprocurehouse.com or email info@africanprocurehouse.com