Gold, often regarded as the quintessential 'yellow metal,' is currently experiencing one of its most remarkable years on record. In the past six months alone, gold prices have surged by over 60%, resulting in significant gains not only for gold itself but also for related sectors like gold equities, miners, exporters, and the government.

This extraordinary rally underscores gold's enduring role as a safe haven investment, especially in times of global uncertainty. Its unique properties—malleability, portability, aesthetic appeal, near indestructibility, universal acceptance, liquidity, and scarcity—solidify its status as a premier store of value.

In this Miners Weekend Read (MWR), sponsored by African Procure House (APH), we examine Zimbabwe's year-to-date gold production, the main factors driving the ongoing global gold price increase, and the potential risks that could impact the future outlook of gold prices.

Furthermore, the MWR emphasizes that the strong gold rally is significantly helping to reduce Zimbabwe’s trade deficit by increasing merchandise exports. This is a critical moment for investors and stakeholders alike—highlighting the strategic importance of gold as both a resilient asset and a driver of economic stability during these uncertain times.

·       External Trade Summary

Latest ZimStat trade data show that Zimbabwe's merchandise exports reached US$878.2 million in August 2025, a slight 0.2% increase from US$876.1 million in July 2025. A detailed analysis of the data further emphasizes Zimbabwe’s reliance on mineral commodities, which accounted for an impressive 84.2% of total exports in August 2025. Cumulatively, merchandise valued at US$5.6 billion was exported during the January-August 2025 period, representing a 21.7% increase from the US$4.6 billion achieved in the same period in 2024. The figure below illustrates monthly external trade statistics (US$ millions), sourced from ZimStat.

ZimStat trade data also show merchandise imports for August 2025 at US$871.1 million, down 1.7% from US$886.2 million recorded in the previous month. Overall, Zimbabwe spent about US$6.7 billion on imports from January to August, which is 6.3% higher than the US$6.3 billion spent during the same period in 2024.

However, the country recorded a trade surplus (exports exceeding imports) of US$7.02 million in August 2025, a first since July 2019. Cumulatively, Zimbabwe achieved a trade deficit of approximately US$1.1 billion in the January-August period, which is 35.3% lower than the US$1.7 billion deficit recorded during the same period in 2024.

The slowdown in the trade deficit and the attainment of a surplus in August 2025 are supported by the spectacular performance of mineral commodities, such as gold, which has singlehandedly generated US$2.7 billion in this period, compared to only US$1.3 billion in 2024.

·       Gold Export Performance

Traditionally, gold constitutes Zimbabwe’s foremost export. Official trade records indicate that in August 2025, the nation exported gold valued at US$462.7 million, representing a 2.2% increase from US$452.6 million in July 2025. The figure below indicates gold exports (US$ millions), sourced from ZimStat

Cumulatively, gold exports from January to August 2025 totaled US$2.7 billion, reflecting a substantial 107.7% increase compared to the US$1.3 billion recorded during the same timeframe in 2024. The total gold export value of US$2.7 billion for 2025 accounts for an impressive 48.2% of the total export receipts (US$5.6 billion) for that period.

·       Gold Price Bull Run

The strong performance in gold exports can be linked to rising global gold prices. For example, let's take a jog from the start of Q3. In July 2025, the spot price of gold went up by 0.3%, ending at about US$3,299 per ounce (Oz). In August 2025, the average monthly gold price kept its upward trend, climbing 4% to close at US$3,363/Oz, marking the seventh consecutive month of record-high average prices.

By September 2025, international gold prices surged to record highs, rising nearly US$400/Oz in a single month. The monthly average price surpassed US$3,800/Oz, ending at around US$3,863/Oz, marking one of the most favorable months for gold in over a decade and contributing to a 47% year-to-date (YTD) increase—its strongest annual performance since 1979. Overall, gold prices gained 17.1% in 3Q25, outpacing the 2Q25 growth rate of 5%.

This upward trend continues a multi-year bullish cycle, during which gold prices have roughly doubled. In October 2025, the yellow metal maintains its record-setting pace. On October 8, it reached its 45th new all-time high of 2025, hitting US$4,000/Oz. It took only 36 days for the gold price to rise from US$3,500/Oz to US$4,000/Oz.

However, the momentum shattered on October 21, when gold posted its largest decline in over 10 years. Spot gold fell to as low as US$4,090.97/Oz, nearly US$300 below its all-time high of US$4,380.89/Oz set the day prior (October 20). This nearly 6% drop was its biggest intraday decline since 2013 and ended a nine-week rally. On October 24 (11 am GMT+2), gold prices also fell by more than 1%, as investors took profits, while signs of easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China reduced safe-haven demand ahead of a key U.S. September 2025 inflation report. Will this decline sustain its momentum? We will discuss that later.

·       Gold Price Rally Drivers

Gold has always been a barometer of uncertainty, and in 2025, investors faced many uncertainties. The yellow metal has maintained its position as a top safe-haven asset, delivering a 60% return from January to September 2025. Its rally has been strengthened by increased market volatility caused by rapid geopolitical shifts, trade policy uncertainties, persistent inflation, a weakening US dollar, market expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts, and decreased USD-denominated debt issuance by foreign governments.

Central banks have continued their vigorous buying activity, providing steady support for gold prices. According to the World Gold Council's 2Q25 Trends Report, central banks bought more gold over the past four years than they did in the previous two decades combined. This trend reflects several global concerns.

First, there are increasing concerns about currency debasement, driven by ongoing fiscal deficits and monetary expansion, which are eroding the value of fiat currencies. Second, geopolitical fragmentation is intensifying, as rising economic nationalism and the formation of regional blocs create pressure for more independent reserve strategies. Third, countries are turning to inflation hedging to protect against potential price instability as monetary policy stays accommodative. Fourth, de-dollarization efforts are accelerating as nations seek to diversify away from traditional currency reserves amid shifts in global financial power. Finally, there is a growing recognition for the need for politically neutral reserve assets to safeguard financial stability in an uncertain world.

Emerging-market central banks have boosted their gold reserves by an average of 15% since 2023. This growth accelerated after the Russian central bank's assets were frozen in 2022, raising serious concerns about the security of traditional foreign exchange reserves.

Gold, on the other hand, is regarded as politically neutral, and central banks have responded by diversifying into the yellow metal at an unprecedented rate.

Additionally, gold prices have been supported by several factors. First, there is an unprecedented increase in retail investor participation, driven by greater accessibility. The expansion of fractional ownership platforms has democratized gold investment, enabling smaller investors to enter the market. Second, is the entry of younger demographics seeking alternatives to traditional financial assets. Third, is increased adoption of digital gold. The growth of tokenized gold and blockchain-based ownership models are offering new ways to gain exposure to precious metals. Finally, gold is supported by economic agents looking for inflation protection measures. Persistent consumer price increases have diminished purchasing power across major economies.

·       Zimbabwe Gold Production

Gold deliveries to Fidelity Gold Refinery (FGR) slightly declined by 0.4% to 4.19 tonnes at the end of August 2025, down from 4.21 tonnes in July 2025. Artisanal and Small-Scale Mining (ASM) accounted for the majority, 77.6% (3.25 tonnes), while large-scale miners contributed 22.4% (0.94 tonnes). The chart below highlights monthly official gold deliveries (tonnes). 

 Despite the slight decrease in August 2025, year-on-year gold deliveries to FGR increased by 22.6%. From January to August 2025, FGR received a total of 28.5 tonnes of gold, representing a 37% increase from the 20.8 tonnes received during the same period in 2024. During this eight-month span, the ASM sector supplied 73.7% of the total, compared to 26.3% from large-scale producers.

·       Gold Sub-sector Outlook

Despite a few days' decline in global gold prices witnessed in late October 2025, we anticipate a continued gold rally in the near to medium term, driven by elevated geoeconomic risks that will likely keep gold demand and prices elevated. Our assumptions about global gold demand hinge on investors and central banks buying about 560 tons of gold per quarter, on average, in 2026. If this holds, we forecast the price to reach US$5,000/Oz by mid-2026.

Several other catalysts could drive global gold prices even higher. Further monetary easing by major central banks, with additional interest rate cuts beyond current expectations, could lower the opportunity cost of holding gold. Again, rising geopolitical tensions also support gold, as new conflicts or worsening existing situations could trigger increased safe-haven flows.

Furthermore, potential global financial market instability could boost gold prices, as stock market declines or issues in the debt market may prompt investors to turn to gold as a safe haven. Additionally, rising inflation—the return of widespread price increases above many central banks’ targets—would make gold more attractive as an inflation hedge.

With higher global gold prices, export incentives, and improved local gold pricing and payment terms, we believe the risks to Zimbabwe’s gold production lean mainly toward the upside, and we remain confident that gold deliveries to FGR in 2025 will meet the government’s annual goal of 40 tonnes.

Nonetheless, there are endogenous downside risks, including severe electricity shortages, regulatory hurdles such as export surrender requirements, payment delays, and operational disruptions caused by the rainy season in Q4 2025.

From an external perspective, several factors could limit further gains in global gold prices. These include stronger-than-expected macroeconomic data in developed countries and higher real interest rates, which would raise the opportunity cost of holding gold and potentially decrease its relative appeal.

Additionally, global gold prices may be pressured by profit-taking as investors lock in gains after significant price increases, leading to short-term selling pressure. Supply response could also play a role, since sustained higher prices might eventually encourage increased production and recycling, helping to rebalance the market.

About African Procure House:

African Procure House (APH) is a buying house specializing in a broad range of electrical, instrumentation, and mechanical engineering solutions tailored primarily for the mining industry. It is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa, with a branch in Harare, Zimbabwe. For more information, visit www.africanprocurehouse.com or email info@africanprocurehouse.com